After a dismal showing with my BAFTA predictions where Tilda Swinton seemed more surprised than anyone and Marillion Cottilard led the unexpected triumphs for La Vie En Rose, it's time to court humiliation once more by trying to second guess the Academy voters for this Sunday's strike-free Oscars.
So, rather like a security blanket, I'm going to cling to Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will be Blood) not upsetting everyone's predictions, fellow nominee George Clooney (Michael Clayton) included, and completing his clean sweep by taking the Best Actor, leaving Messrs Clooney, Depp, Jones and Mortensen to acknowledge they really never stood a chance.
Cotillard's up there again for Best Actress, but sub-titled performances seldom take the major Oscars. Nor, unfortunately, does comedy, which rules out Ellen Page for Juno.
No one thinks Cate Blanchett's going to win for Elizabeth which leaves Laura Linney in The Savages and Julie Christie for Away From Her. She's the favourite, but then she was for the BAFTAs.
However, the Academy does like rewarding illness and death, so I'm betting that Alzheimer's wins the day.
For Supporting Actor there's just an outside chance that it'll be upsets all round with Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild) getting the nod by dint of getting his first nomination at the age of 83.
Casey Affleck gets his first notice too, but given that no one saw Jesse James he'll have to settle for the critical acclaim.
I can't understand how Tom Wilkinson made the list (and not Benicio Del Toro for Things We Lost in The Fire) given his overacting in Michael Clayton, which should see favourite Javier Barden (No Country For Old Men) romp home ahead of Philip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson's War).
As with Cotillard, it's unlikely that Swinton will repeat the BAFTA upset and, representing Atonement's sole acting nod, Saoirse Ronan trails the betting field by a long way.
Top of the tree is Cate Blanchett for I'm Not There, but her two nominations might split the vote leaving a close fight between Amy Ryan for the, as yet unseen here, Gone Baby Gone and, if you can remember her, Ruby Dee in American Gangster. A close call, but I'm feeling the love for Blanchett.
The Academy Best Animation nominations offer a closer battle than the BAFTAs and there's some that tip the foreign language Persepolis to steal the crown from Ratatouille. They're wrong, of course.
For the actual Foreign Language film Oscar, I'm handicapped by having only seen one of the nominees, Holocaust drama The Counterfeiters.
Word is strong for Israel's war drama Beaufort but it's Kazakhstan's Mongol that heads the odds against Poland's Katyn and Russia's 12.
On the technical front I'm tipping There Will Be Blood for cinematography, No Country For Old Men for Editing, Golden Compass for Visual Effects and La Vie En Rose for make-up.
For music I'll take Atonement for Original Score and, while I'd love to see Falling Slowly from Once pick up Original Song, tradition dictates it has to be one of the three Alan Menken numbers from Enchanted.
So, on to the films themselves. Atonement leads the field for Adapted Screenplay, closely chased by The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood, and it seems likely that this is the only other gong it can look forward to accepting.
For Original Screenplay, Diablo Cody can pretty much start rehearsing her speech now for Juno, though Tony Gilroy might still sneak it with Michael Clayton.
He won't, though, need to check his thanks list for Best Director. Neither will Julian Schnabel or Jason Reitman in what is a battle of the giants for both Best Director and Best Picture between the Coens for No Country For Old Men and Paul Thomas Anderson for There Will Be Blood.
It's rare for the one award not to go hand in hand with the other, and both fully deserve to win, but the Coens and No Country are currently every bookie's favourite and, while I have a vague itch that says they get Director and Blood gets Picture, I think Joel and Ethan will do the double.