Birmingham’s population growth could be much smaller than experts thought over the next decade, new figures suggest.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) previously calculated that there would be 1,209,500 people living in the city by 2026.

But that figure is based on just five years’ worth of historic data about the numbers moving to and from Birmingham.

Now the ONS has produced an alternative estimate based on 10 years worth of historic data.

It suggests Birmingham’s population might only grow to 1,194,300 by 2026 after all.

That is 15,200 fewer than expected.

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The figures - which do not factor in a potential drop in international migration after Brexit - could have significant consequences for authorities planning for future demand for schools, housing, and health services.

According to the ONS, Birmingham had a population of 1,137,123 in mid-2017.

The original calculations suggested that figure would rise to 1,209,500 by 2026 and 1,313,300 by 2041.

That would have meant a population increase of 176,177 over the next 25 years.

The new calculation would see the population rise to just 1,279,400 in 2041 - a much smaller increase of 142,277.

The ONS stresses that all population projections are estimates, intended to give an indication of the future size and age of local residents.

The original figure was based on measured net migration to Birmingham, from abroad and from other parts of the UK, from 2012 to 2016. It then factored in data about the number of births and deaths to produce an overall estimate of future population.

The new projection does exactly the same, but using migration data from 2007 to 2016.

It suggests that cities like Coventry, Liverpool and Manchester - as well as Birmingham - might see lower-than-expected population growth.

Bradford, Swindon and London boroughs like Ealing and Harrow might see significantly higher populations than was previously thought.