Birmingham's flagship automotive industry and the social care sectors are likely to be adversely affected when Brexit finally kicks in, according to a long awaited report just published.
The 92-page Brexit Commission report coordinated by Birmingham City Council has finally delivered its assessment about the impact of leaving the EU.
Its publication could hardly have been less timely, coming amid a week of further political turmoil and continuing uncertainty about the terms of departure.
But the report states that trade, business, jobs and funding the region's public sector will all be adversely affected, whatever the deal.
The analysis, it says, is as 'comprehensive' as possible but is not a 'definitive assessment' given the level of uncertainty that surrounds Brexit.
The report features input from universities, chambers of commerce, West Midlands Combined Authority, local enterprise partnerships and councils in the Black Country, Solihull and Coventry.
Deputy leader of Birmingham City Counciil, Brigid Jones (Lab), maintained her personal view that Brexit will ultimately be 'bad' for the region, adding it was 'staggering' that the government had not consulted with political leaders in Birmingham as well as other major cities around the country.
Automotive industry exposed
In terms of trade, the region's 'flagship' automotive trade is 'particularly exposed' according to the document, with only 40 per cent of components sourced locally. The aerospace industry is similarly at risk, says the report.
Whatever the outcome, Birmingham will remain a key market for Europe, simply because of its geographic location.
Cllr Jones stated one of the biggest impacts would be on the West Midland's 'just-in-time' production, which particularly affects the area's major car plants.
Areas like the Birmingham Wholesale Markets could also be set for major disruption due to visa restrictions on HGV drivers, with hundreds of lorries arriving at the site every night.
Overall, the region's economy could take a one-per cent annual hit for the next 15 years.
Skills shortage will be worsened
Birmingham's skills shortages are likely to be exacerbated by Brexit, the report continues.
Leaving the EU is expected to put a 'considerable strain' on the 10 per cent of the region's nurses who are from the EU, as well as the 2,000 health workers who help people in their home.
The visa restrictions which will affect European lorry drivers making dozens of trips between the continent and the West Midlands a year will also have a similar impact on seasonal workers such as those at the Frankfurt Market at the heart of Birmingham's Christmas celebrations.
Loss of EU money will cause damage
Funding is the fourth major area of concern.
The report says the loss of EU monies is 'yet another damaging contraction' of local government resources, with Birmingham in particular losing in the region of £650m from Whitehall in the last seven years.
The city has benefited from £1billion of EU funding and is currently delivering £103m of EU-funded schemes.
European money for the region's 12 universities to carry out research is expected to be significantly diminished.
Public sector will be hit
Cllr Jones believes one of the biggest impact areas will be in the public sector, reiterating the fears around recruitment of social care workers in particular.
On the back of the report she argued that now was the time for accelerated devolution of central funding.
Renewed call for regional funding
Cllr Jones said: “Local government has been subject to almost a decade of austerity and funding cuts, and Brexit adds a further layer of complexity and difficulty, exacerbated by uncertainty around the terms by which we will leave.
"It is therefore vital that government accelerates local devolution funding so we have some power to mitigate the impact.
“As responsible public authorities we are putting processes in place to prepare as best we can for the implications of a ‘no deal’ exit, working with regional stakeholders to develop resilience and contingency plans.
"This, of course, places yet another financial burden on already stretched local authority resources.
“Leaving the EU does not mean a withdrawal from open collaboration with cities and regions across Europe or the rest of the world.
"We have a strong track record of bringing in major investment from European and other global partners which has brought prosperity, growth and employment to the region and UK as a whole.
"Given the current level of uncertainty it is crucial that there is open dialogue between central government and city leaders, so there can be a collective effort to prepare the region and country appropriately.”
The impact report is set to be discussed by Birmingham City Council's cabinet bosses next month.
