Birmingham’s first directly-elected mayor will be chosen by 39 Tory councillors at a private meeting and the votes cast will never be revealed.

It’s hardly a very inspiring start to what is supposed to be a new era of accountability and people power.

Because of the very strange way the Government has gone about persuading England’s largest cities to adopt mayors, Birmingham will get one whether it likes it or not as soon as the Localism Bill is signed into law at the end of the year.

Whoever happens to be leader of the city council at the time will become shadow mayor with all the powers of a mayor and will remain in the post until either the people of Birmingham decide not to have a mayor in a referendum in May 2012 or, if the referendum delivers a yes vote, stays in office until the first mayoral election can be held in May 2013.

So this year’s city council Conservative group AGM moves to a whole new level of importance.

I think it is safe to assume that Tory councillors remaining in office after the debacle of last week’s local elections will vote for Mike Whitby to remain their leader, and therefore he will be re-confirmed as city council leader at the annual council meeting the following day.

It seems unlikely that Coun Whitby will even face a challenge.

Although strong evidence has emerged that two backbench Tory councillors were planning to stand against Whitby, the word is that both have now decided not to do so.

If someone does put their name forward before nominations close, then Whitby has to secure 19 votes plus his own vote in order to continue as council leader and become shadow mayor.

In that case, the decision on who is best suited to take the biggest local government job outside of the Mayor of London could fall to 19 people.

And since the Conservatives in Birmingham cling to the quaint idea that it is bad form to reveal the grubby business of how many votes an individual candidate receives, we shall simply be told who has won and who has lost.

For goodness sakes, they’re still arguing the toss about by how many votes Whitby beat Randal Brew in the last Tory leadership challenge – some say it was a landslide, others put the smart money on a majority of just three.

All of this must be seen against the backdrop of a rapid shift in the balance of power in Birmingham.

Last week’s elections resulted in Labour picking up 14 seats to become the largest group in the council chamber with 55 members, crucially six short of an overall majority.

Had Labour managed to win in three seats where the Tories hung on with majorities of less than 60, and taken three more tight marginals, the job of electing the shadow mayor would have fallen to this weekend’s Labour group meeting where Sir Albert Bore is odds-on favourite to secure votes from at least 27 of his colleagues to see off a challenge from John Clancy and remain leader.

There is actually a delicious irony in the Tory-Lib Dem coalition continuing in office with a combined 42 per cent of the vote at the council elections, against 48.3 per cent for Labour.

The rational coming from the coalition – that by combining their individual vote of 27.3 per cent (Con) and 14.7 per cent (Lib Dem) they have enough councillors to secure a majority and stay in office – is exactly the same argument that both groups raged against when Birmingham voted nine years ago in a consultative ballot on whether the city should have a directly elected mayor.

On that occasion, a majority voted for two different types of mayor but the Tories and Lib Dems insisted the first-past-the-post process meant that the single largest percentage, for continuing with the council leader and cabinet, had to be accepted even though a majority of people clearly wanted a mayor.

It goes almost without saying that the way the Government has gone about attempting to introduce a mayor to Birmingham has been little short of a shambles.

Probably this is because most senior Conservatives at Westminster are opposed to the mayoral system and would rather stick with a council leader and cabinet, or possibly revert to the old committee system.

The Prime Minister and his policy supremo Steve Hilton are the duo pushing the drive to mayors, so other Ministers must fall into line and show willing.

Even so, the Localism Bill setting out how cities like Birmingham are to move to referendums and elected mayors is so open to interpretation that even local government wonks are uncertain as to what the regulations actually mean in practice.

Crucially for Birmingham, when exactly will the council leader become the shadow mayor?

The Bill talks about the relevant date, which some Conservatives have convinced themselves next year’s annual council meeting. If that was to be the case, the shadow mayor is likely to be Sir Albert Bore given the near certainty that Labour will pick up at least the six seats required for an overall majority in the council chamber.

Iron Angle hates to burst the Tories’ bubble, but a reliable source at the Department for Communities and Local Government tells me that the shadow mayor will be installed as soon as the Localism Bill passes into law, which is likely to be towards the end of this year.

The Bill itself could hardly be clearer: “Following Royal Assent, the Government will make an Order, whereby the council leader for Birmingham, (and other cities) would become shadow mayors, and be given the powers available to existing council mayors.”

So Mike Whitby, who hasn’t been seen since last week’s dire election results began to roll in, will be shadow mayor - at the very least until the referendum is held in May 2012.