The Birmingham Independent Improvement Panel could clearly have benefited from a crystal ball when they prematurely announced that the city council was well on the road to organisational competence at the start of August.

As a group of local government experts who have been watching Birmingham City Council like a hawk since 2015 maybe they should have seen the signs of discord – especially as the bin strike was already in full swing.

The leaked emails and discreet briefings surrounding the notorious bin strike deal show that the former leader and the interim chief executive were completely at odds over the deal and the possible way forward.

Faced with a major crisis of bin strike proportions, the people who replaced those have hardly covered themselves with glory. It certainly appears that Cllr Clancy panicked in the face of negative headlines and a strong union and that Ms Manzie, for her part, seemed uninterested in compromise of any sort.

Speaking of the warring factions at the High Court this week Mr Justice Fraser said: “Neither party comes out of this sorry saga with any credit at all – I could use the words remarkable, extraordinary and more”.

Cllr Clancy has paid the price and Ms Manzie will be leaving her interim position by the end of the year. Both had been appointed to their respective posts replacing predecessors the panel had criticised and that the Department for Communities and Local Government had, according to the rumour mill, insisted should go.

So the panel’s first public statement was to ask that some permanent appointments are made, and made fast to get the organisation back on track.

The Labour group are expected to endorse the “strong and stable” Ian Ward as leader shortly. Although he may well face an outside challenge for the role – backbencher Barry Henley who secured one vote in the last leadership election is thought to be a possible candidate. (update: backbenchers Barry Henley and Changese Khan are challenging ).

But even that appointment will last only until May when the whole council is up for election and a new group may have other ideas.

That’s the trouble with politics – the electorate, whether that’s the city as a whole or the small group of councillors, have a habit of causing upset to any notions of continuity.

And if that’s the case the panel had better forget any ideas of leaving again.

Selection woes, again

Birmingham Labour group celebrates local election success in 2016

The bin strike has seen the Birmingham Labour movement dragged through the mire – particularly with Corbyn-backing councillors facing attack from their own unions and the Momentum wing of the party on whom some rely for support.

But a further cause of grief, bubbling away in the background this summer has been the battle for safe council seats ahead of the May 2018 elections. With fewer to go round and the various factions, both political and personal, vying for places, things have got strained.

The promotion of an equal number of women candidates has also left some established male councillors at risk of deselection.

Also at the heart of the matter is a power struggle between the West Midlands regional party, personified by deputy leader Tom Watson and leader Jeremy Corbyn’s supporters in the Momentum movement.

A rematch had been ordered in Harborne where a candidate had been selected in controversial circumstances and both sides made scurrilous claims about the conduct of the other.

But it is not all left-right politics – for example Cllr Kerry Jenkins , a Corbyn fan before it was fashionable and official with the Unite union, has found herself ousted in Hall Green North.

“Not left wing enough,” was the verdict of one onlooker.

Now the party’s National Executive Committee has put a stop to the Birmingham selections following a flood of complaints. Once again Birmingham finds itself on the party’s naughty step.

If the Birmingham Labour party can’t organise a selection without it ending in scandal, legal threats or manipulation from above, there are some alternatives.

Since no one is likely to form a breakaway party, they could instead go for open primaries – particularly in safe seats where the Tories are no threat – and give the wider electorate the decision. Try to convince the rest of us you’re in the right.

Deputy role tempting for some

The Birmingham Cabinet in 2016

An upshot of Ian Ward’s likely election as council leader is it leaves a tempting vacancy for his current £40,000 per year deputy leader role.

As deputy he has overseen the city’s so far successful Commonwealth Games bid , but has struggled to get his cabinet colleagues and officers to stick to their budgets – something which gets harder year by year as the government support dwindles.

It is thought likely that, as leader, he would stay closely involved with the Commonwealth Games – he seems to have a good relationship with the sporting authorities.

The difficult but crucial financial role will fall to his successor.

Four names have been widely touted. Three members of the current cabinet, Lisa Tricket, Brigid Jones and Paulette Hamilton, and one ex-cabinet member, Tahir Ali, are said to be waiting to put their hats in the ring.

Cabinet meeting have, by all accounts, been tense enough as it is lately – the resolution, for all involved, can’t come soon enough.