A coating of cloud has come to cool St Andrews and there is some talk of rain. But there's still no appreciable wind and the experts' forecast stands: there is going to be some pretty fancy scoring when The Open Championship starts this morning.

Principal expert and 3-1 favourite for the title, Tiger Woods, predicts that in the prevailing conditions the guys are going to "shoot some numbers".

We know one of the guys he has in mind. It was pretty mild when Tiger won at St Andrews five years ago; when he won by eight shots at 19-under-par. He's licking his lips.

There have been some pretty strange results in the Open since Carnoustie in 1999. On three occasions in that time, it has been won by household nobodies. This has become a tradition.

But not many people are looking beyond Woods this time. He's not too keen on the prospect of weather like that which he played through at Muirfield two years ago but he says he doesn't mind what the elements present and is quite unconcerned about the changes that have been made to the Old Course.

Tiger looks dangerous. He is dangerous. He has the strongest mind of any man playing the game and he knows how to apply it to the challenges of St Andrews.

He has the strategy and he has the length and if he has to use his driver more frequently than he did in 2000, the changes that he has been making to his swing should take care of that.

There are those who claim that the R&A have attempted to make the Old Course - Tigerproof' but he's unimpressed by that sort of propaganda.

"On any golf course in the world, the longer hitter is going to have an advantage," he said. "If he's hitting it well."

So who are the longer hitters who may contend with him here? Davis Love is as long as anybody, Angel Cabrera is simply frightening and John Daly is a legend ? who happened to win here in

1995. None of those spring to mind as serious challengers this time.

But Ernie Els and Vijay Singh, to whom distance is no object, have very pressing claims and will come into most people's considerations.

Els has not been quite his usual force this year but he was delighted with his game, if not his putting, at Loch Lomond last weekend in the Scottish Open and you just have to go with the money: Woods, Els and Singh. No wind and they could finish in that order.

It's strange how so many golfers affect a preference for a bit of weather. So many of them seem to believe that if the wind blows it will deter everybody else's game except their own. How can they all be right?

"I'm hoping that the wind will pick up a bit," said Sergio Garcia." The young fibber. Let's listen to Colin Montgomerie. "A howling gale is not my cup of tea," he said. Nor anybody else's.

Montgomerie reckons that the entire field would be happy if the wind blew somewhere else for the whole of the rest of the week.

There was a time when Montgomerie would have been regarded as Britain's - Europe's - best hope of keeping the Claret Jug at home. He is not among the many who have come to disregard his chances but our expectations are now elsewhere.

Padraig Harrington would have been our champion had he not withdrawn on account of the death of his father.

Now Garcia is being touted as Europe's main hope. He has the talent but whether he has the mental strength for a job like this is highly questionable.

Darren Clarke is the sort of golfer who could do well, though. The Northern Irishman grew up playing links golf, he has a game for all seasons and he has now just about reached his prime. A decent each-way wager is Darren.

And what about Bernhard Langer. The German is beyond the age that you normally associate with Open Championship winners but when it comes to brain power, the grasp of course management that is so essential at St Andrews, he has professorial credentials. Another useful bet for a place.

But we do have to bring the Yankee Factor into the equation. Seven of the last ten Opens have been won by Americans and they've got the favourite now.

But what if Woods does not oblige? Who's next in the betting? It has to be Phil Mickelson, of course.

In the years that he has been coming to the Open, Mickelson seemed to be on some sort of romantic flutter. It was cool to play in the Open but a bit of a chore looking for the special skills that you need to compete. Not any more.

Since Mickelson won the US Masters last year he seems to have developed a far more responsible approach to major championships, especially to the Open.

He put in a superb performance at Royal Troon last year and was a whisker away from winning. If he's in that mode this week it will be a case of watch out Tiger.