Labour could lose six Government figures in the West Midlands on the basis of recent opinion polls, according to a Conservative MP.
Ian Austin, one of Prime Minister Gordon Brown's closest advisers, would be among those to lose their seats.
The analysis by Staffordshire MP Michael Fabricant (Con Lichfield), a Conservative Whip, has been distributed to Tory MPs, peers and MEPs.
It was published after Cabinet Minister Hazel Blears predicted Conservative leader David Cameron had run out of momentum, after what she admitted were a difficult six months for Labour.
Mr Fabricant's research is based on an opinion poll by ICM published over the weekend, which gave the Conservatives a nine-point lead over Labour.
He said he was discounting a separate poll which put the Conservatives 16 points ahead, as this was "just too good to be true".
But the MP insisted the ICM poll vindicated the Conservative strategy of refusing to promise tax cuts.
He has produced a list of seats which would change hands if the ICM poll is reproduced in a General Election, and if support for the Conservatives rose equally in every seat. In his briefing to Conservative colleagues, Mr Fabricant warned the conclusions should be "treated with caution", but said they suggested "big changes in the West Midlands".
He said the poll suggested the Conservatives could gain a Commons majority of 30.
But he warned the real majority would be significantly less - because the Liberal Democrats would do better than polls suggested.
He said: "The result in a General Election is likely to be better for the third party, though its membership in the Commons is still likely to be at least halved."
Speaking to The Birmingham Post last week, Local Government Secretary Hazel Blears predicted Gordon Brown would now lead Labour's fightback.
She said: "I have a sense after a fairly turbulent six months, things are settling down and we are going to be in a period of attrition in our politics. I am quite encouraged that momentum we might have seen for David Cameron and the Tories over six months is evaporating.
"I don't think there's been any sense of depth or a real alternative government in waiting beginning to prepare its policy.
"And I think you are now seeing much more substance from the Prime Minister in terms of the policy that is coming through."
* According to Mr Fabricant's research, Labour seats which would fall include Dudley South, held by Science Minister Ian Pearson; Redditch, held by Jacqui Smith, the Home Secretary; Warwick & Leamington, held by Benefits Minister James Plaskitt, and North Warwickshire, held by Pensions Minister Mike O'Brien
* Labour would also lose Birmingham Selly Oak, defended by Government Whip Steve McCabe. The analysis is based on new Selly Oak boundaries, which take in parts of Mr McCabe's constituency, Birmingham Hall Green
* Gordon Brown also faces the loss of Parliamentary Private Secretary, Ian Austin, MP for Dudley North. Although Mr Austin is not a member of the Government, he is one of Mr Brown's close allies
* Other senior MP victims include Sylvia Heal, Deputy Speaker of the Commons
* Other Labour seats the Conservatives could win include Birmingham Edgbaston, held by Gisela Stuart, and Coventry South, Nuneaton, Stafford, Stourbridge, Tamworth, Telford, Wolverhampton South West and Worcester