Rail industry insiders have predicted that the extension of the Midland Metro through Birmingham city centre will be given the green light by Government.
Leading public transport consultancy TAS, in its influential Rapid Transit Monitor report, said the £430 million expansion of the network through Birmingham and the Black Country would get the go-ahead.
TAS, which lists the Department of Transport among its clients, said the scheme was likely to proceed along with projects in London and the South-east integral to the 2012 Olympics - likely to top almost £2 billion.
TAS was instrumental in advising the successful bidders for light railway schemes in Nottingham and Croydon.
The report is the ninth in a series dating back to 1991 and provides 295 pages of commentary and analysis covering light rail, Underground and Bus Rapid Transit.
"We predict that the expansion of the Midland Metro has a good chance," said author and director of TAS, Chris Cheek.
"I think the fact that the Government accepted the funding case originally and it has granted them powers to build it under the Transport Work Act Orders means it has an excellent chance of succeeding. Also there is the fact that Centro is confident that this will rescue something that is otherwise pretty much a disaster."
Having read the preliminary case for expansion Centro had sent to the Government, the only real clouds on the horizon, he said, were if the actual building costs came in at way over what was estimated.
"Basically it is down to whether the capital costs estimates have been accurately calculated, if the build-ers come in and want more than what Centro has allowed," said Mr Cheek. "That has been a problem point for projects in Leeds, Manchester and South Hampshire."
But he said, risk management procedures that were now in the Government's funding requirements were much more robust than was formerly the case, and they allowed for 'optimism bias' in costs.
On April 24 the business plan was unanimously given the go-ahead by West Midlands Passenger Transport Authority.