Can Australia become the first country to win a third successive World Cup in the ninth tournament since 1975? Can West Indies become the first host country to lift the trophy? Which Asian country is the most likely winner, and where do England figure after a suspicion of a revival in the last month?

When the first of 51 matches is played in 15 days’ time, it will be under the most significant change of rules in one-day cricket — the third compulsory power-play in which the number of overs during which only two fieldsmen can be outside the 30-metre ring has been increased from 15 to 20. That is why totals are going through the roof with previous par totals of about 250 losing many more matches than they win, and 300 is commonplace.

There are generally small grounds in the Caribbean, bigger bats are now used baseball fashion, and the likely winner is the team that adapts best to the most singular conditions yet to prevail after seven weeks in which not one match will be played under the wretched floodlights. Australia first, as clear favourites — albeit on the drift.

The loss of Brett Lee is a massive blow, as will be the reduced fitness of Andrew Symonds even if he is passed fit to play after a freakish rupture of biceps in his upper right arm. Captain Ricky Ponting has missed four of the five unprecedented successive defeats, two by England and three by New Zealand, and, together with Kevin Pietersen and Andrew Flintoff for England, Jacques Kallis for South Africa and Sanath Jayasuriya for Sri Lanka, is among the most influential cricketers in the competition.

Australia are rattled by their spectacular decline, and it is not just a matter of confidence. Any bowling unit minus Lee and including Shane Watson is fragile, particularly now that left-arm leg-spinner Brad Hogg is not bowling or batting up to standard. Nathan Bracken is top drawer and Mitchell Johnson is not far behind but Glenn McGrath has just been introduced to the word inconsistency, mainly because of age which has also put his fielding on the borderline of unacceptability.

With Ponting and Adam Gilchrist back at the top of the order, they can still bully their way through most matches — but all of them? Doubtful. Definitely not a side to take a short price about. Neither are South Africa if only because their inflexible quota ration of non-whites will find them out, following the exclusion of Dale Steyn and Boetha Dippenaar who should be there on merit.

New Zealand are a lively outfit, at least they are with Jacob Oram fit, and could surprise everyone, including the Asian bloc. Their best bet could be Sri Lanka, narrowly ahead of India, with Pakistan too likely to self-implode to win the tournament for a second time.

West Indies? They just might rattle a few cages with explosive cricketers like Chris Gayle, Dwayne Bravo and a last hurrah from Brian Lara but, as with Pakistan, seem to lack the steel to go all the way.

England’s first match against New Zealand is crucial because group points are carried through to the second-stage Super Eights.

England have problems in all three departments — four if you include wicketkeeper Paul Nixon. He has suddenly become the media flavour of the year because of his comic ability to chatter away to some of the world's best batsmen but he will be found out wearing the gloves and his run-scoring rate and general limited ability is the most moderate of the eight major 'keepers in the tournament.

Gilchrist is top, with Brendon McCullum not far behind as is Mark Boucher, Mahendra Singh Dhoni and Kumar Sangakkara, all of whom can win a match off their own bat. A run a ball, or somewhere near, is a must. Nixon averages 67 per 100 balls faced but a bigger worry is the strike rate of the other batsmen.

Pietersen fires at 95, Andrew Flintoff at 88, but the remainder are woeful. Andrew Strauss — not certain to be selected in the team — stands at 76, with Jamie Dalrymple 74, Paul Collingwood 73, Ian Bell 70, Michael Vaughan 68 and Ed Joyce 65. Unless those figures are redressed dramatically, England will be offering a number of pop guns against other side's heavy artillery.

The queries in the bowling are just as fundamental, with whomsoever is captain crossing everything he has got when Liam Plunkettt and Sajid Mahmood bowl. Plunkett is a wicket-taker but sprays wides everywhere while Mahmood has still to find a repetitive method. The omission of Stuart Broad will be regretted unless he squeezes in because of longstanding injuries to James Anderson and Jonathan Lewis.

England fly to the Caribbean this week, on a wing and equally definitely on a prayer. As with the Ashes series, selection will bedevil them sooner or later.