This month's interest rate decision by the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee looks to be on a knife edge.

Virtually every pundit is convinced there will be another rate rise of a quarter per cent to 5.5 per cent ... but will it be on Thursday or will the MPC wait until May?

The majority, including heavyweights David Kern, economic adviser to the British Chambers of Commerce, and Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at Global Insight, are banking on May.

Indeed Kern makes an impassioned plea on behalf of small firms. He states: "The blow to business confidence resulting from the disappointing Budget, particularly the damaging increase in the small companies’ rate from 19 to 22 per cent, makes it critically important that the MPC rejects any suggestion for an immediate interest rate increase."

It could have "devastating consequences".

Yet what makes him think this will cut any ice with the committee? The MPC has never cared tuppence for the manufacturing sector which it clearly regards as some sort of leftover from the dinosaurs.

So why should it be bothered with trifling small businesses? The MPC looks only at things like cost pressures, wage inflation and the level of house prices.

Our export success or lack of it doesn't make the radar. Neither does special pleading for the likes of small business.

Governor Mervyn King has made it plain that rates need to rise one more time.

Mr Archer clearly suspects the MPC has lost the plot of late – David Blanchflower even voted for a cut in March. And he has no intention of being taken for a mug this time.

He notes: "The MPC has sprung a number of surprises in recent months, be it in the actual timing of interest rate rises or in their voting patterns.

"Another surprise cannot be ruled out on Thursday, and the recent testimonies by Mervyn King and other MPC members to Parliament have reinforced our belief that one more interest rate hike remains very much in the pipeline and could well be near the top."

Expect the "coup de grace" in May. So there, a dramatic Shakesperian gesture next month – I've always though Mervyn was far better suited to treading the boards at Stratford.

Particularly as I regard Shakespeare as being as dull as ditchwater, and Mervyn does dull extremely effectively.

Mr Archer fears the "very robust" CBI distributive trades survey for March may cause the MPC to upgrade its view about the current strength of consumer spending and, although the MPC seems largely relieved with the relatively modest rise in wages so far this year, this is countered by its increased concerns stemming from survey evidence repeatedly indicating that firms are looking to raise prices.

"While Andrew Sentance and Timothy Besley may well revert to voting for higher interest rates, we suspect that most of the other MPC members will be prepared to hold fire for a little longer."

I don't know. I have a sneaky feeling we're in for another early hit.