Last January virtually every pundit inclined to risk a forecast announced confidently that the dollar was set to fall off the cliff and Gordon Brown's appetite for borrowed money would force the yields on British Government stocks through the roof.
As is frequently the case with overwhelming consensuses, the opposite happened.
Long-date gilts, with decades of inflation to run before they mature, now yield just 4.3 per cent, a return of just 2.3 per cent above the official version of inflation.
The pension funds just cannot have enough of them and are content to pay the price.
As to the dollar, after drifting to $1.93 against the pound in mid- March, it bounced back to a 19-month high after last week's bombings in London.
Sterling has since recovered a bit to take the rate back to $1.76.
In the old days that would have been called a nine per cent devaluation - for little more Harold Wilson went on TV as Prime Minister to say it didn't really matter.
Nowadays we cheer a weaker pound supposing it will make life more bearable for our exporters.
This time it has done nothing of the sort. Yesterday's survey from the British Chambers of Commerce shows a disturbing slide in exports of both goods and services. That is largely because our main export markets are in Europe, where nobody is in the mood to buy anything - and sterling has not fallen against the euro.
The boom is in Asia and we just don't seem very good at exporting to the Asians. All the devaluation has done for us is add another nine per cent to the rocketing cost of oil and other commodities priced in dollars.
Meantime, the end of the housing boom has left the economy growing distinctly more slowly than Mr Brown predicted in his March Budget - the British Chambers reckon by no more than 2.1 per cent this year.
Even if he fudges his selfimposed "golden rule", he will need more tax revenues. David Frost at the British Chambers is already sounding off about the damage another round of National Insurance contributions will do to British business. The CBI is equally adamant that it can take no more taxes.
With four years to the next General Election, Chancellor Brown may well heed them. If he does, a percentage point - or two - on VAT looks a serious prospect. If people object that VAT hits the poor harder than the rich he could spread the pain with a couple of pence on higher rate income tax to spread the pain.
Labour's election promise was to leave only the basic rate alone.
But VAT is inflationary. An ill-timed increase could make the Bank of England raise interest rates when the real economy needs a cut.
Better, then, to get the cut in first, well before Mr Brown says whatever he has to say about taxes in his pre-Budget this autumn.
If the Bank waits until next year it could find American interest rates going up while ours are going down. Then we might get real devaluation, an old-style sterling crisis. But who would go on TV to say it doesn't matter? Mr Blair or Mr Brown?