Conspiracy theorists might see it as a classic case of cunning reverse psychology but Deutsche Bank - the biggest bank in Germany - has tipped England to win the World Cup.
Foreign exchange analysts at Deutsche Bank, which has a large presence in Birmingham, believe Germany’s biggest footballing rival can lift the trophy in Brazil.
Some might question the validity of the computer model used, which sees a possible England success as down to the fact it is a former winner of the trophy in 1966 and as such is likely to repeat past glories having not done so yet.
Another plus point highlighted is the number of Liverpool players in the team.
The Deutsche Bank research states: “England are among the best teams according to our static model.
“The history of World Cup winning runs suggest that England is among the teams that could win this World Cup.
“Within this group of teams, England is the only one that has won a World Cup and not reached another final. And the last time England had so many Liverpool players in the team, it won. Therefore, we are confident that England will win this World Cup.”
However, keeping its options open Deutsche Bank Deutsche Bank’s analysts also suggested Brazil or Spain as likely winners.
The report added: “Our models point to Brazil having most chance of winning followed by Germany, Spain, and France. But to leave it at that would be boring and too conventional. So we introduce what some would call our bias but we like to think of as a discretionary overlay.”
Deutsche Bank is not the only financial institution to get in on the World Cup prediction act.
Economists at Goldman Sachs have predicted that Brazil will triumph, beating Argentina 3-1 in the final.
They also concluded that England face an early exit by not making it through the group stages.
Their prediction is for England to will finish third in Group D, with Italy and Uruguay making it through to the knockout stages.
Using a model that takes into account each country’s track record and characteristics, Brazil emerged as the favourite, with a 48.5 per cent probability of winning on home territory.
The host nation was followed by Argentina with a 14.1 per cent chance.
The Goldman Sachs experts also predicted semi-final exits for Spain and Germany and had England’s chances of winning the trophy as just 1.4 per cent.
Accountancy group PwC has also made Brazil the favourite, followed by Spain, Argentina and Germany and said England would struggle to get out of its group.
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