Small business campaigner Russell Luckock fears that both Jaguar and Land Rover could soon be lost to the West Midlands.

And he warns that were this to happen it would be a big blow to the regional economy.

Mr Luckock was commenting on the back of his latest half year survey which looks at the state of the metals and engineering industry in the Midlands.

He never pretends it is scientific, but maintains it gives a good guide to industry health. The latest report shows things bumping along the bottom.

Mr Luckock, chairman of Birmingham presswork company AE Harris, said he did not think things would get any worse in the future "provided the status quo remains and Jaguar and Land Rover stay in the Midlands".

But he admitted to "grave concerns", particularly about Jaguar. Parent Ford is currently carrying out a worldwide review of its operations, axing plants and thousands of jobs.

Aston Martin is up for sale, with a variety of bidders lining up.

The comments out of Ford's Dearborn headquarters have largely been supportive of Jaguar, but its fate remains unclear.

Mr Luckock is sceptical.

He said: "I fear that once Aston Martin is sorted out, then Jaguar will be next.

"I think there is a chance that Jaguar may be gone with the next 12-24 months.

"Ford is doing this worldwide review and Jaguar is losing money. For Ford, losing money is not in the religion.

"It is closing so many plants in the US – it is being quite ruthless. I cannot see that they regard Jaguar in grace and favour terms."

Mr Luckock is also concerned about the future of Land Rover.

Pointing to the growing environmental attacks on the 4x4 maker, disparaging reference to Chelsea tractors and the whole climate change issue, he noted: "I think Land Rover will go to the US."

Earlier this month it was revealed that Ford had effectively mortgaged itself to the hilt in order to meet the #5.6 billion cost of shutting factories, laying off workers and paying down pension and healthcare liabilities.

It stated in a filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission, the American financial regulator, that it had pledged all of its buildings, trademarks, intellectual property, together with shares in the main business as well as its overseas operations such as Jaguar, Land Rover, Aston Martin and Volvo.

The assets have been pledged as collateral against a #12 billion credit line it has negotiated to cover both the restructuring costs and anticipated annual losses up to 2009.

Ford, which lost #6.5 billion in 2006, is closing 14 factories in North America and axing 37,000 hourly paid and 14,000 salaried jobs.

UK car sales for February showed Land Rover was again off the record highs seen last year, registering a 5.89 per cent fall to 895 units.

Jaguar, part of Ford's Premier Automotive Group of European luxury brands along with Land Rover, Volvo and Aston Martin, sold 431 cars, 11.13 per cent adrift over the same month last year.

The Luckcock survey, comparing this month with last September in terms of firms' perception of the state of trade, found 135 very quiet (95); 413 quiet (500); 134 fair (105), 15 busy (7); and three very busy, (4).

In addition 36 companies had either closed or gone into liquidation in the first two months of the year compared with 129 for the whole of 2006.