Cadbury still clearly believes it is in control of events as it continues down the road of splitting itself apart. The trouble is that nobody else seems to think so.

The company was once again yesterday desperately trying to downplay claims that it was bounced into a break-up by activist investor Nelson Pelz - the man who put the boot into Heinz.

Last week, Fidelity fund manager Anthony Bolton criticised Cadbury for caving in to pressure from Mr Peltz, saying the decision "could represent a come-on to every corporate raider".

But Cadbury chief executive Todd Stitzer maintained the separation was the result of two years of deliberations and followed discussions with numerous shareholders. "I have nothing but great respect for Mr Bolton and his investment record as I do for Mr Peltz and his investment record but our decision to separate our beverages business was one that had input from many shareholders over a two-year period and our board was the ultimate decider.

"No one shareholder or group of shareholders had any over-influence on that decision," Mr Stitzer claimed.

"The board made a decision based on its perspective that we had created two very strong, stand-alone businesses, and that there would be a terrific value-creation opportunity for shareholders in the separation.

"I think, if you take a look at the share price, the board's judgement was justified."

Except that lumbering Cadbury would probably never have got round to ever taking a decision.

And the only reason the share price is more solid is because of the activist intervention.

Sanford Bernstein analyst Andrew Wood believes the threat of investor activism and a potential bid has galvanised Cadbury's management to be more aggressive in extracting shareholder value.

Not before time, many would say. "Our view remains that, even if no bid is forthcoming for Cadbury, shareholders should still benefit from management unlocking the value from ongoing operations," said Mr Wood.

With the drinks side set to be sold off, what then for confectionery?

Panmure analyst Graham Jones acknowledges that Cadbury is the "clear global leader" in confectionery with annual revenues of close to £5 billion, but said the business had "room for substantial margin uplift".

Mr Jones said a bid for the confectionery business from either Kraft Foods or private equity could not be ruled out, but believes such a move would be beyond Hershey or Wrigley - the latter would incidentally likely hit regulatory problems.

He reckons there is a 70 per cent probability of the re-modelled Cadbury remaining independent.

This of course is assuming confectionery as an all-embracing niche.

It has never struck me that there is much in common between chocolate and gum.

Not something I have ever looked at in marketing terms, but watching people in the street I have always thought gum chewers and chocolate addicts are very different beasts.

New Cadbury may well survive - but probably be default.