The Bullring shopping centre in Birmingham is to come under serious scrutiny – just as the economic downturn begins to impart real pressure on the retail sector.

And an expert has warned that it and other major complexes around the country are facing a big challenge given the financial constraints which are already seeing people rein in their spending.

The Investment Property Forum, a commercial property sector networking organisation, hosts a discussion on Tuesday into how the Bullring changed Birmingham, how it has developed and what its future might be.

The centre, which recently celebrated its fifth anniversary, was conceived and driven by the Birmingham Alliance, a partnership between Hammerson, Henderson Global Investors and Land Securities.

But times are becoming increasingly tough for the original trio across their retail holdings. Land Securities is already in the process of selling off its stake in the £1 billion scheme while Hammerson is retaining a positive outlook despite announcing a 6.4 per cent dip in the value of its assets earlier this year.

Despite the downturn in the retail sector the rental income from its UK and European shopping centres saw an increase in the first six months of the year although the second half of the year is likely to offer a more challenging market as the effects of the economic uncertainty begin to affect the public’s spending habits.

Upmarket retailer John Lewis is seen as a relatively accurate bellweather of the health of the retail sector but the most recent figures do not make for happy reading. Its flagship Solihull store has seen a 15.1 per cent fall in like-for-like sales compared to the same period last year.

Retail sales have followed a fairly unpredictable trend through the summer with some bounce during May and July but the last few months have offered a distictly downward trend.

The Bullring itself, which incorporates 160 stores - of which 91 were new retailers to Birmingham - recently celebrated its fifth anniversary and while it has not all been plain sailing, it is apparently still attracting high profile retailers, the latest being outdoor speacialist North Face which has opened its fourth UK store in the centre.

Guy Webber, of Bidwell Webber De Pons, who will be speaking at the seminar on Bullring’s relationship with the city and its impact on competing retail centres, admitted that the centre has been a “tremendous success”, but offered a note of caution for the months and years to come.

“The re-development transformed the Bullring’s status in the retail hierarchy and made available much larger units,” he said. “It has taken Birmingham forward as capital of the West Midlands region.”

He said there had been an effect on other locations in the city, but more recently these had seen some new stores moving in with the likes of Mothercare and JJB Sports launching in Corporation Street, Cotswold arriving on New Street and various fresh faces were in the Pavilions including LK Bennett.

However Mr Webber added: “It will be a major challenge for the Bullring and every major centre in the country. All are likely to be hit in much the same way.”

Niall Cassidy, associate director in lease advisory at Atisreal, which is organising the event, agreed that Bullring had indeed been a big success.

But the impact on other parts of the city centre, such as High Street, New Street and Corporation Street, were such that these had “still not recovered yet”.

And he warned that, with no-one quite sure when the proposed Martineau Galleries scheme might proceed, many businesses were reluctant to commit to taking units.

He said: “Bullring has been extremely successfully but it sucked everything up and did have a big effect on the wider retail market in Birmingham.

“For the first three years there was hardly a new letting in High Street, New Street and Corporation Street. The top end of New Street and High Street were strong areas, but there were a lot of units on the market.

“There is a bit going on but generally the market is subdued,” he said.

There were people who would take shopping units at the right price, but landlords had to be realistic particularly in the present climate.

Tuesday's seminar takes place at the Colmore Row offices of law firm Eversheds, from 4.30pm-6pm.

Lawrence Hutchings, director of shopping centre investment management for Hammerson, will speak on how Bullring has changed, with particular focus on tenants and turnover.

Mike Flecknoe, director of retail and leisure at Atisreal, discusses how rateable value patterns altered in Birmingham after Bullring opened and Mr Cassidy will examine how the Bullring is affecting current rent review settlements in the city.