Although Labour managed to sneak through under extreme pressure from UKIP and the Tories to win the Stoke-on-Trent by-election last week, the narrow victory has led to nerves rising as the region heads into its first West Midlands Mayor election this spring.
Recent history suggests that this election would be a shoo-in for the Labour candidate Sion Simon.
In recent West Midlands Police Commissioner elections Labour has taken almost double the votes of the nearest Conservative rival, winning comfortably in 2014 and 2016 – albeit on a very low turnout.
West Midlands Labour is also a highly organised campaign machine with an army of about 20,000 members ready to knock doors, get on the phones and brow beat passers-by in shopping centres.
Running this effort is one Caroline Badley, who was credited with masterminding the grassroots campaign operation which led to Gisela Stuart bucking national trends to defend her marginal Edgbaston seat in the 2010 general election. Mr Simon has also, in all likelihood, already charmed key community leaders and secured the votes of thousands of loyal Labour voters in inner city wards.
These voters turn out in large numbers even during these desperate times for the party. The Labour votes in Washwood Heath, Sparkbrook and Handsworth are among the largest council ward votes in the UK.
Even when Labour has performed dismally in a national contest, such as the 2015 general election, their vote in Birmingham and, to a slightly lesser extent the wider West Midlands metropolitan area, has held up,
Mr Simon has a massive advantage and his Conservative rival Andy Street has a huge hurdle to overcome.
Regardless of this, the West Midlands remains for the Conservatives their best chance of securing a big city mayor this year.
Based on the 2015 general election it would take a four per cent swing from Labour to Conservatives, though the 2016 Police Commissioner election result looks less promising with a 12 per cent swing needed for a Tory win.
Of course the outside challengers from UKIP, the Lib Dems and Greens could yet have a say – especially as their supporters get a second vote in this election.
Despite all this, Andy Street’s campaign has a spring in its step – they see a decent performance in Stoke where they ran UKIP close for the runner-up spot and national polls showing huge leads over Labour.
In an interview with colleagues at the Coventry Telegraph, Mr Street highlighted Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, unpopular outside the party ranks, as a major asset for the Tories.
And what he lacks in comparison to Labour’s party machine, he is making up for with a huge campaign budget.
Letterboxes have been stuffed with two Andy Street for mayor newspapers and pamphlets, as well as some direct mail. More are to come between now and May.
It has previously been pointed out that he has downplayed his Conservative tag, highlighting instead his credentials as a Brummie made good who went from the shop floor to the boardroom at one of Britain’s leading retailers, John Lewis.
But his campaign team insists they have two strong brands – Street himself and the Conservative Party with Theresa May at the helm.
Their latest publication puts this in sharp contrast to Sion Simon who they paint as the career politician – the Labour party worker who became an MP, then an MEP – part of that liberal political elite that outraged of Dudley is railing against.
He is a politician who had his time in Government a decade ago and failed to deliver.
Although the Labour camp retort is that Mr Street, although Brummie bred, hightailed it to London as soon as he could and, as a friend of the Prime Minister with cabinet members on speed dial, could not be more establishment if he tried.
They say he will be another puppet sent down by ‘high command’ in London to keep the Midlands in line.
So for Conservatives it is the businessman versus the career politician, whereas for Labour it is the wealthy big businessman versus the guy who goes to the Baggies every other week.
We often look on with envy at Merseyside and Greater Manchester – but in both their cases you might as well hand the keys to the mayor’s office to Labour now such is the extent of their lead.
But here in Greater Birmingham no one is being complacent, all sides are putting their all into the campaign and voters have a genuine contest and a real choice to make on May 4.
