I guess it's time to admit defeat. The clowns have won, and perhaps it's been inevitable for a while.

I have been one of those who opposed holding a referendum on leaving the European Union. Last June I used this column to urge Labour leader Ed Miliband against promising a vote, following reports that he was contemplating making such a pledge.

It makes no sense to hold a referendum on leaving unless you actually want to leave, I said. To put it another way, the danger of asking people whether they want to quit the EU is that they might say “yes”. Given that Labour didn’t actually want to hear that answer (and neither did I) it made no sense to ask the question.

But it now looks like a referendum will be held, one way or another. Of course, it’s David Cameron who promised a referendum in the end but I suspect though, that Labour will end up having to do something similar.

It’s hard to imagine Prime Minister Ed Miliband agreeing to significant changes to the way the EU works – even changes which we are not part of, perhaps because of an opt-out or because they only affect members of the single currency – without coming under intense pressure to offer a public vote.

That’s down to the success of UKIP, the party condemned as “fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists” by David Cameron and “a collection of clowns” by Ken Clarke.

They have put the question of EU membership on the agenda. Previously it was one of those issues that sections of the public might feel strongly about but the political classes could safely ignore because they all had more or less the same opinions on the topic.

It’s also, however, partly because the EU is changing. Whoever is in power after the next election will be dealing with an EU in the process of reforming to ensure the current crisis affecting the eurozone can never happen again – perhaps by creating centralised taxation and spending mechanisms – and Britain will be left on the outside.

So how should we respond to that? Well, perhaps it’s only right that the public should be asked their view for once.