Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) appears to have closed in on Poland or Slovakia as potential sites for a huge new plant it intends to build in central and Eastern Europe.
It's thought a decision could be made by the autumn. There has been much speculation in recent months JLR was looking at a new plant in the region.
The firm had already confirmed it had agreed a deal to sub-contract assembly to Magna Steyr in Austria.
Quite what JLR will contract out to Magna is not yet clear (it could be electric cars as well as the replacement for the Defender).
But this sub-contracting deal is only the first step. Earlier this year, JLR dropped some heavy hints the firm was looking at investing in the region as well as the United States: "There are various states in the US and countries in Eastern Europe which provide incentive".
Another one: "Europe is an attractive option but it is just one of the places under consideration."
Since then, JLR is thought to have been exploring sites in Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia.
That has now been narrowed down to Poland and Slovakia, it seems.
The investment could be worth as much as £1.2 billion, according to the Polish Deputy Prime Minister Janusz Piechociński.
The latter has suggested in various media reports the plant could have a capacity of 350,000 units a year and could be up-and-running by the end of 2019.
The project would be "the biggest investment in the car manufacturing industry in Poland", Piechociński told media (while he didn't specifically identify JLR as the potential investor, he did state it was an auto firm aiming to assemble premium cars).
At the moment, General Motors Europe and Fiat both have sizeable automotive assembly plants in the country.
If Poland were chosen, the new plant could be located in Jawor, around 40 miles west of Wroclaw.
JLR representatives have visited the site several times, including a visit earlier this month, according to the Polish newspaper Gazeta Wyborcza.
According to Piechociński, Poland is still competing with Slovakia to provide a site for the factory.
"We are on the shortlist. Our remaining rival is Slovakia," he is reported as stating.
Meanwhile, as part of a rival effort to woo the JLR investment, the Slovak government this month approved the setting up of the country's first strategic industrial park, 50 miles north east of the Slovak capital Bratislava.
This 1,810-acre site at Nitra could offer space for an automotive plant and supplier park.
"We need to get this park very quickly, because the investor will make a decision by mid-September," the Minister of Economy Vazil Hudak told the Slovak Parliament when asking for support for an accelerated project approval process.
"Going through the normal legislative process would mean several months, and we do not have that luxury," he said.
Poland and Slovakia will slug it out, offering whatever incentives they can under EU State Aid rules.
Poland has an advantage in that industrial labour costs there average under £6 an hour, against over £7.10 in Slovakia (Eurostat data for 2014). That could help sway the decision the way of Poland.
Part of the narrative about this eastward shift is JLR is about to 'max out' its UK operations at around 500,000 units, so needs a new plant to grow output.
It's correct to say the paint shops at both Halewood and Solihull in particular are key bottlenecks and will require sizeable investment to raise production significantly.
But, by shifting production around and running three shifts across its three UK plants, I think JLR could in fact squeeze out 600-650,000 units a year flat out in the UK.
So, rather, this isn't so much about running out of capacity in the UK as (i) JLR raising its output ambitions even further and (ii) the firm being squeezed in the UK by a combination of skill shortages in the industry, exchange rate shifts, likely EU emissions fines and the UK's planned carbon price floor.
On the latter, it should be stressed a strengthening exchange rate re: the euro plus planned energy cost rises in the UK mean JLR has only one place to go - getting labour costs down and eastern Europe offers just that.
On the former, the plant being planned in Poland or Slovakia suggests to me JLR has raised its output goal from around one million units a year to 1.5 million over the next decade.
To put that in perspective, this year JLR output will top 500,000 units.
Why do I say this? Do the maths.
The UK could stretch to 650,000 units a year at full swing. The plant in China is already producing and could run to 150,000 a year, notwithstanding the market headwinds the firm will face in that market.
The plants in India and Brazil could see 100,000 units a year between them. A North America plant is still on the agenda, with the US states of Georgia and South Carolina thought to be current frontrunners.
That would likely see a capacity of 250,000. Contracting out assembly to Magna in Austria could add 50,000 a year.
Add in the new plant in Eastern Europe, with a capacity of 350,000, and I get to just over the 1.5 million-a-year mark. That is over three times the output JLR saw last year.
Can JLR pull this off? Yes, but only if it gets the products absolutely right.
And a concern for UK workers will be what happens if market sales don't keep pace - where would that leave the UK plants?
Professor David Bailey works at the Aston Business School